Guide Series

The Grey Swan Toolkit

A 5-part guide to researching asymmetric trades. From reading options chains to identifying supply chain chokepoints, each guide covers one tool in the grey swan analyst's toolkit.

5 guides

  1. 1

    How to Read an Options Chain for Grey Swan Bets

    Strike selection, expiration timing, and the math behind asymmetric risk-reward.

    15 min read
  2. 2

    How to Find Hidden Risks in SEC Filings

    The filings nobody reads contain the risks nobody prices.

    10 min read
  3. 3

    How to Spot Insider Selling Clusters

    When five insiders sell the same week, it's worth asking why.

    9 min read
  4. 4

    How to Analyze Court Dockets for Investment Risk

    Lawsuits are public. The market ignores them until it can't.

    10 min read
  5. 5

    How to Identify Supply Chain Concentration Risk

    Diversification on a map isn't diversification in a tariff schedule.

    11 min read