Rubber $wan

I have spent decades watching markets move and digging through the filings that explain why. SEC 10-Ks, proxy statements, credit agreements, insurance covenants, earnings transcripts nobody reads past the first question. The boring stuff that tends to matter more than the headlines.

Rubber Swan focuses on grey swan events: risks that are knowable if you look hard enough but that most market participants ignore because they are unlikely on any given day. Supply chain chokepoints. Buried covenant triggers. Regulatory cliffs that only show up in footnote 14 of an amended 8-K. The kind of asymmetry where a cheap put option can return multiples if the thesis plays out.

Every article starts with a specific question: what could go wrong here that the market is not pricing? From there it is a trail of public filings, satellite data, court dockets, and whatever else it takes to build or kill the thesis. If the risk is real and the options are cheap, it becomes a published trade idea. If not, it goes in the drawer.

What this is

Original research on low-probability, high-payoff tail-risk trades using stock options. Each article identifies a specific vulnerability, walks through the evidence, and lays out a concrete trade structure with defined risk.

What this is not

Financial advice. Rubber Swan is a pseudonymous research publication, not a registered investment advisor. I write about what I find interesting and occasionally terrifying. You should do your own work before putting money behind anything you read here or anywhere else.